Common mental and substance use disorders in a 28-year follow-up of a community cohort: identification of preventive strategies from adolescence to early midlife

An ageing population, together with a continuing transition towards non-fatal disease burden, is shifting Australias health priorities towards noncommunicablediseases (NCDs). Midlife brings the onset of important NCD health risks and disabling conditions, including chronic pain. The Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study (VAHCS) provides an outstanding opportunity to address these knowledge gaps. The current proposalwould extend VAHCS into early midlife with a 28-year follow-up. In doing so, it creates an internationally unique profile of the natural history anddeterminants of mental and substance use disorders across the first half of life. Using recent innovations in statistical methodology for causal modelling, wewill identify optimal targets for preventive and clinical action from adolescence to early midlife.