Interactive Demographic Transition: Analysis and Theory

The demographic transition, or decline in mortality and fertility levels to produce the modern small family and normally long-lived individuals, may well be the most important social change of our time. It has occasioned much research but theory is still in disarray. This is at least partly explained by a disregard for feed-back mechanisms in the form of organized movements supporting and opposing such demographic change. My aim is to reanalyze data from my own and others work, taking such interactions into account, to produce a demographic transition theory suited both to historical explanation and the guidance of contemporary policy.