A comparative static model of the relationship between immigration and the short-run job prospects of unemployed residents

A novel theoretical approach is developed to illustrate the consequences of immigration for the probability that unemployed residents gain a job. Through the use of the vacancies to unemployment ratio it is shown that immigration in theory can either increase or decrease unemployed residents' employment probabilities, but that, contrary to populist rhetoric, an increase is more likely the more recessed is the labour market. With reference to feasible Australian values of the parameters of interest, it is demonstrated that in practically all circumstances immigration increases the overall employment prospects of unemployed residents. Even so, the analysis is very short run, and strong conclusions as to what might be happening over the longer term are not appropriate.