A framework for context-aware climate risk assessments

Managing risk effectively under an uncertain and rapidly changing climate places significant reliance on the tools we use to address this risk. Climate risk assessments are often used to provide the basis for planning and adaptation, but current methodology frequently fails to acknowledge the complexity inherent in climate-sensitive systems. There is a need for a climate risk assessment methodology that accounts for systemic complexity, through consideration of a range of perspectives, disciplines, and methods, and can adapt to new information and changing values and system boundaries. We introduce a framework for conducting “context-aware” climate risk assessments, consisting of an iterative six-stage process, drawing on concepts from risk management and climate risk assessment frameworks. We demonstrate the framework's promise through application to a case study of a water resource system in the Barossa Valley, South Australia. The context-aware risk assessment framework provides guidance while allowing for flexibility in adjusting to system context and system-specific challenges, and has broad applicability to water resources management and beyond.