TY - JOUR
T1 - A predictive model of hospitalisation and death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
AU - Schembri, Stuart
AU - Anderson, William
AU - Morant, Steve
AU - Winter, Janet
AU - Thompson, Philip
AU - Pettitt, Daniel
AU - MacDonald, Thomas M.
AU - Winter, John H.
PY - 2009/10
Y1 - 2009/10
N2 - Rationale: A recent study showed that doctors are excessively pessimistic about the prognosis in patients with COPD and suggested that a simple tool to predict outcome is needed. Methods: In a prospective observational study, 3343 patients with an FEV1 < 80% of the predicted value and FEV1/FVC < 70% were selected from a clinical network of patients screened for COPD in Tayside, Scotland. Data were collected during annual visits on demography, spirometry, smoking history, medical research council (MRC) dyspnoea scale, body mass index (BMI) and other variables. The main outcome measures were hospitalisations and death secondary to COPD. A proportional hazard model was used to identify significant risk factors. Results: Increasing age, low BMI, worsening MRC dyspnoea score, decreased FEV1, and prior respiratory or cardiovascular admission hospitalisation were predictors of poor outcome. Influenza vaccination was protective. Conclusion: We have developed a model that estimates the risk of respiratory hospitalisation and death in patients with COPD.
AB - Rationale: A recent study showed that doctors are excessively pessimistic about the prognosis in patients with COPD and suggested that a simple tool to predict outcome is needed. Methods: In a prospective observational study, 3343 patients with an FEV1 < 80% of the predicted value and FEV1/FVC < 70% were selected from a clinical network of patients screened for COPD in Tayside, Scotland. Data were collected during annual visits on demography, spirometry, smoking history, medical research council (MRC) dyspnoea scale, body mass index (BMI) and other variables. The main outcome measures were hospitalisations and death secondary to COPD. A proportional hazard model was used to identify significant risk factors. Results: Increasing age, low BMI, worsening MRC dyspnoea score, decreased FEV1, and prior respiratory or cardiovascular admission hospitalisation were predictors of poor outcome. Influenza vaccination was protective. Conclusion: We have developed a model that estimates the risk of respiratory hospitalisation and death in patients with COPD.
KW - COPD
KW - Death
KW - Hospitalisation
KW - Predictive model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=69449101824&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.rmed.2009.04.021
DO - 10.1016/j.rmed.2009.04.021
M3 - Article
SN - 0954-6111
VL - 103
SP - 1461
EP - 1467
JO - Respiratory Medicine
JF - Respiratory Medicine
IS - 10
ER -