A spatiodynamic model for assessing frost risk in south-eastern Australia

K. Shuvo Bakar*, Philip Kokic, Huidong Jin

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    15 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Previous climate research concluded that causal influences which have contributed to changes in frost risk in south-eastern Australia include greenhouse gas concentration, El-Niño southern oscillation and other effects. Some of the climatic indices representing these effects have spatiotemporal misalignment and may have a spatially and temporally varying effect on observed data. Other indices are constructed from grid-referenced physical models, which creates a point-to-area problem. To address these issues we use a spatiodynamic model, which comprises a blending of spatially varying and temporally dynamic parameters. For the data that we examine the model proposed performs well in out-of-sample validation compared with a spatiotemporal model.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)755-778
    Number of pages24
    JournalJournal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics
    Volume64
    Issue number5
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Nov 2015

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