A Synthesis of Compound Drought in Africa: Mechanisms, Hotspots, Impacts, and Future Projections

Across Africa, drought seldom occurs alone. Rainfall deficits often coincide with heat, rapid soil moisture loss and reduced streamflow, producing compound events whose impacts exceed those of any single driver. This review synthesises station observations, satellite and reanalysis products, and climate model simulations to clarify where such events are most common, how they form, how they affect societies and ecosystems, and how risks are changing. A practical tiered definition tailored to African conditions is outlined and applied to identify five recurrent hotspots: the Sahel, the Greater Horn of Africa, southern Africa, the margins of the Congo Basin and the Guinea Coast. The review sets out a physically consistent sequence that links basin-scale sea surface temperature anomalies to shifts in monsoon circulation, and then to land processes that amplify and prolong heat and dryness through reduced evapotranspiration and soil-moisture memory. Documented impacts include lower crop and pasture productivity, pressure on rivers, reservoirs and groundwater, stress on hydropower and wider consequences for food and energy security. Compound drought frequency across these hotspots has risen by 18-55% since 1980, with the probability of the most severe events roughly doubling at 1.5 degrees C of global warming and tripling at 3 degrees C. The review highlights near-term priorities, including compound-aware monitoring, sub-seasonal-to-seasonal early warning and conjunctive water management.