A system dynamics approach in LCA to account for temporal effects-a consequential energy LCI of car body-in-whites

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to take steps towards a life cycle assessment that is able to account for changes over time in resource flows and environmental impacts. The majority of life cycle inventory (LCI) studies assume that computation parameters are constants or fixed functions of time. This assumption limits the opportunities to account for temporal effects because it precludes consideration of the dynamics of the product system. Methods System dynamics methods are used in a consequential, fleet-based LCI that accounts for some aspects of the dynamics of the wider system. The LCI model compares the life-cycle energy consumption of car bodyin- whites (BIWs) in Australia made from steel and aluminium. It incorporates two dynamic processes: the flow of BIWs into and out of the fleet, and the recycling of aluminium from end-of-life BIWs back into new BIW production. The dynamical model computes both productbased and fleet-based estimates. Results and discussion The product-based computations suggest that an aluminium BIW consumes less energy than a steel BIWover a single life cycle. The fleet-based computations suggest that the energy benefits of aluminium BIWs do not begin to emerge for some time. The substitution of aluminium for steel is a low-leverage intervention that changes the values of a few parameters of the system. The system has a delayed, damped response to this intervention because the large stock of BIWs is a source of high inertia, and the long useful life leads to a slow decay of steel BIWs out of the fleet. The recycling of aluminium back into BIW production is a moderate-leverage intervention that initially strengthens a reinforcing feedback loop, driving a rapid accumulation of energy benefits. Dominance then shifts to a balancing loop, slowing the accumulation of energy benefits. Both interventions result in a measureable reduction in life-cycle energy consumption, but only temporarily divert the underlying growth trend. Conclusions The results suggest that product-based LCIs overestimate the short-term energy benefits of aluminium by not accounting for the time required for the stock of preexisting steel components to decay out of the fleet, and underestimate the long-term energy benefits of aluminium components by not accounting for changes in the availability of recycled aluminium. The results also suggest that interventions such as lightweighting and other efficiency measures alone can slow the growth of energy consumption, but are probably inadequate to achieve sustainable energy consumption levels if the fleet is large.