Adapting farming to climate change in the Asia-Pacific region

Global consumption of grains is projected to double by 2050 due to projected growth in population and per capita consumption of grains. Additional consumption will be from use of grains in livestock production which is likely to increase as incomes rise. Global food security depends on expanding current farming activities in a sustainable way to meet this demand. Much of this expansion will happen in the Asia-Pacific. A critical part of meeting this challenge will be in provision of appropriate crop nutrition. This will be happening in a background of changing energy availability and prices, different trade arrangements, altered social values including pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and enhance environmental stewardship and improvement in agronomic technologies and practices. Climate variability already has a significant influence on global grain production and fertiliser use and further impacts on production are anticipated as the climate changes. Climate changes are likely to reduce grain yields in tropical and subtropical regions, as well as in regions with 'Mediterranean’ climates. Yields could potentially increase in some more temperate regions. The potential for increased climate variability and climate-related disturbances could place downward pressure on the use of fertiliser and other inputs. Adapting to climate change may be effective in lessening the negative impacts of small changes in climate. We briefly cover some of the possible adaptations. However, studies of global food security suggest that the world’s population will be exposed to a greater risk of hunger as a result of climate change even with adaptation. In this paper we suggest that these studies may have significantly underestimated the risk to food security. Environmental limitations to grain production, increased variability in production and a range of policy constraints that may affect the fertiliser industry need to be addressed in a systematic and coherent way.