Adolescents at risk of mental health problems in the COVID-19 pandemic: A prospective population-based study of the effects of government mandates and school closures

There is increasing evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic has had substantial mental health impacts for adolescents. Yet, few definitive studies have investigated which adolescents were at higher risk of poor mental health and well-being during the pandemic. Data were drawn from the Childhood to Adolescence Transition Study, a prospective cohort study of students in Australia (N = 1211). Prevalence of mental health outcomes (depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, self-harm and good subjective well-being) was estimated in school Years 5–12, where Years 11 (2020) and 12 (2021) coincided with the pandemic. The age- and sex-adjusted relative risk of each mental health outcome for each priority group during the pandemic were estimated. During the pandemic, over 50% of study participants reported depressive symptoms, and one quarter reported anxiety symptoms. There was a decrease in good subjective well-being compared with pre-pandemic years, while self-harm prevalence remained similar. History of mental health problems, school disengagement and frequent peer victimisation increased the risk of experiencing mental health problems during the pandemic. Schools play a central role in maintaining the mental health and good subjective well-being of students, and this is particularly important during periods of social disruption, such as the COVID-19 pandemic.