Advanced investigation on the change in the streamflow into the water source of the middle route of China’s water diversion project

To alleviate water shortage in northern China, the middle route of the South to North Water Diversion Project (MRP) was constructed by the Chinese government. A dramatic reduction in the annual streamflow into Danjiangkou Reservoir (ASDR), the water source of MRP, during 1990 has raised some concerns on the MRP’s operation. This paper employed an advanced segmented regression model with more recent data to have a clear picture and understand the changing pattern of the ASDR. Our study first revealed a zigzag changing pattern (decreasing-increasing-decreasing-increasing) of ASDR during 1960-2013, which was supported by statistical criteria compared with a monotonic or single abrupt change. Particularly, the significantly decreasing trend from 1990s was reversed after 2000, and such change may relieve the concern about the water availability in the future. Sensitivity analysis showed that changes in streamflow were largely influenced by the combined effects of precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (ET₀) and were more sensitive to P than ET₀. As ET₀ is estimated from other primary variables, further analysis was conducted to understand the sensitivities of ET₀ to its primary driving variables (wind speed, actual vapor pressure, temperature, and sunshine duration) and indicated that ET₀ is mostly sensitive to actual vapor pressure during 1960-2013. The findings will assist the MRP’s operation and management. Moreover, the results in this study also indicate that an adaptive water diversion plan, rather than the current plan with a constant annual amount of diversion water, might be a better option in the MRP’s operation.