Aggregation via empirical risk minimization

Given a finite set F of estimators, the problem of aggregation is to construct a new estimator whose risk is as close as possible to the risk of the best estimator in F. It was conjectured that empirical minimization performed in the convex hull of F is an optimal aggregation method, but we show that this conjecture is false. Despite that, we prove that empirical minimization in the convex hull of a well chosen, empirically determined subset of F is an optimal aggregation method.