An interactive modelling tool to support knowledge elicitation using extreme case models

J. H.A. Guillaume, B. Fu

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Knowledge elicitation can be a crucial aspect of modelling. When few data are available, it enables predictions to be made on the basis of expert knowledge. It also provides the opportunity for stakeholders to express their understanding of a system to help assess a model and help ensure that their point of view is accounted for. In this paper, we describe an interactive modelling tool to help express and evaluate stakeholders' knowledge about water requirements of floodplain and wetland vegetation (Figure 1). It aims to maximise the breadth of views to which the user is exposed, and minimise mandatory user input. This helps prompt the user to reflect on their knowledge and empowers them to decide what they feel confident in claiming. This is achieved by automatically generating extreme case models (with different parameter values) for the user to evaluate even before they have given any input. Visualisations of these results prompt the user to provide information that constrains the models. These constraints take the form of key concepts of knowledge about suitability, namely the bounds (e.g. ideally, river red gums require 3-8 months of flooding) and relationship between any two points (e.g. 2 months flooding is better than 1 month flooding). This tool helps to capture uncertainty in elicited knowledge by identifying constraints rather than single models and expecting knowledge to be changeable and evolving. This contrasts with approaches that develop multiple consensus solutions, within which dissenting and novel understandings might be suppressed, and approaches that elicit uncertainty as measurable probabilities or possibilities which are themselves uncertain. Although we use a habitat suitability model as an example, this method is generic and can be used in many other applications eliciting relationships among variables.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationProceedings - 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, MODSIM 2013
    EditorsJulia Piantadosi, Robert Anderssen, John Boland
    PublisherModelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc (MSSANZ)
    Pages2138-2144
    Number of pages7
    ISBN (Electronic)9780987214331
    Publication statusPublished - 2013
    Event20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation - Adapting to Change: The Multiple Roles of Modelling, MODSIM 2013 - Held jointly with the 22nd National Conference of the Australian Society for Operations Research, ASOR 2013 and the DSTO led Defence Operations Research Symposium, DORS 2013 - Adelaide, Australia
    Duration: 1 Dec 20136 Dec 2013

    Publication series

    NameProceedings - 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, MODSIM 2013

    Conference

    Conference20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation - Adapting to Change: The Multiple Roles of Modelling, MODSIM 2013 - Held jointly with the 22nd National Conference of the Australian Society for Operations Research, ASOR 2013 and the DSTO led Defence Operations Research Symposium, DORS 2013
    Country/TerritoryAustralia
    CityAdelaide
    Period1/12/136/12/13

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'An interactive modelling tool to support knowledge elicitation using extreme case models'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this