Appraising the Threat of an Islamist Military Coup in Post-OBL Pakistan

A widespread preoccupation with the threat posed by terrorism since 11 September 2001 has placed a global focus on the stability of Pakistan and its nuclear arsenal.1 One worrisome outcome is the possibility of a military coup led by Islamist extremists seizing control of the government, a possibility fueled by the close relationship between Islamist elements in Pakistan and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. Given that Pakistan has been themain source of recent nuclear proliferation, the US has elaborated plans to secure Pakistans nuclear weapons in the event of an unfriendly regime taking power in Islamabad.2 An Islamist coup would also undermine NATOs position in Afghanistan and undermine attempts to isolate Iran. A more likely outcome is an Islamist shift within the Corps Commanders Conference, especially in reaction to US drone attacks and the successful assassination of Osama bin Laden.