Are we approaching 'peak timber' in the tropics?

Over the past few decades, tropical timber production in many Asia-Pacific countries has been akin to the symmetric logistic distribution curve, or 'Hubbert Curve', observed in the exploitation of many non-renewable resources-a rapid increase in production followed by a peak and then decline. There are three principal reasons why logging of native tropical forests resembles the mining of a non-renewable resource: the standard cutting cycle of 30-40. years is too brief to allow the wood volume to regenerate; tropical logging catalyses considerable deforestation; and the bulk of logging is undertaken by multinational corporations with little interest in long-term local sustainability. Unless something fundamental changes, we believe tropical forests will continue to be overharvested and cleared apace, leading to an inevitable global decline in tropical timbers of non-plantation origin. It has become common these days to speak of 'peak oil'. In the tropics, we suggest that we should also begin to discuss the implications of 'peak timber'.