Arguments for-or against-probabilism

Alan Hájek*

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    65 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Four important arguments for probabilism - the Dutch Book, representation theorem, calibration, and gradational accuracy arguments - have a strikingly similar structure. Each begins with a mathematical theorem, a conditional with an existentially quantified consequent, of the general form: if your credences are not probabilities, then there is a way in which your rationality is impugned.Each argument concludes that rationality requires your credences to be probabilities.I contend that each argument is invalid as formulated. In each case there is a mirror-image theorem and a corresponding argument of exactly equal strength that concludes that rationality requires your credences not to be probabilities. Some further consideration is needed to break this symmetry in favour of probabilism. I discuss the extent to which the original arguments can be buttressed.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)793-819
    Number of pages27
    JournalBritish Journal for the Philosophy of Science
    Volume59
    Issue number4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Dec 2008

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