Abstract
Four important arguments for probabilism - the Dutch Book, representation theorem, calibration, and gradational accuracy arguments - have a strikingly similar structure. Each begins with a mathematical theorem, a conditional with an existentially quantified consequent, of the general form: if your credences are not probabilities, then there is a way in which your rationality is impugned.Each argument concludes that rationality requires your credences to be probabilities.I contend that each argument is invalid as formulated. In each case there is a mirror-image theorem and a corresponding argument of exactly equal strength that concludes that rationality requires your credences not to be probabilities. Some further consideration is needed to break this symmetry in favour of probabilism. I discuss the extent to which the original arguments can be buttressed.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 793-819 |
| Number of pages | 27 |
| Journal | British Journal for the Philosophy of Science |
| Volume | 59 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Dec 2008 |