Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

Julie M. Jones; Sarah T. Gille; Hugues Goosse; Nerilie J. Abram; Pablo O. Canziani; Dan J. Charman; Kyle R. Clem; Xavier Crosta; Casimir De Lavergne; Ian Eisenman; Matthew H. England; Ryan L. Fogt; Leela M. Frankcombe; Gareth J. Marshall; Valérie Masson-Delmotte; Adele K. Morrison; Anaïs J. Orsi; Marilyn N. Raphael; James A. Renwick; David P. Schneider; Graham R. Simpkins; Eric J. Steig; Barbara Stenni; Didier Swingedouw; Tessa R. Vance

doi:10.1038/nclimate3103

Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

Julie M. Jones^*, Sarah T. Gille, Hugues Goosse, Nerilie J. Abram, Pablo O. Canziani, Dan J. Charman, Kyle R. Clem, Xavier Crosta, Casimir De Lavergne, Ian Eisenman, Matthew H. England, Ryan L. Fogt, Leela M. Frankcombe, Gareth J. Marshall, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, Adele K. Morrison, Anaïs J. Orsi, Marilyn N. Raphael, James A. Renwick, David P. SchneiderGraham R. Simpkins, Eric J. Steig, Barbara Stenni, Didier Swingedouw, Tessa R. Vance

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

253 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	917-926
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	6
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103
Publication status	Published - 28 Sept 2016

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Jones, J. M., Gille, S. T., Goosse, H., Abram, N. J., Canziani, P. O., Charman, D. J., Clem, K. R., Crosta, X., De Lavergne, C., Eisenman, I., England, M. H., Fogt, R. L., Frankcombe, L. M., Marshall, G. J., Masson-Delmotte, V., Morrison, A. K., Orsi, A. J., Raphael, M. N., Renwick, J. A., ... Vance, T. R. (2016). Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate. Nature Climate Change, 6(10), 917-926. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103

@article{06288c626186483599f16b73267d3774,

title = "Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate",

abstract = "Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.",

author = "Jones, {Julie M.} and Gille, {Sarah T.} and Hugues Goosse and Abram, {Nerilie J.} and Canziani, {Pablo O.} and Charman, {Dan J.} and Clem, {Kyle R.} and Xavier Crosta and {De Lavergne}, Casimir and Ian Eisenman and England, {Matthew H.} and Fogt, {Ryan L.} and Frankcombe, {Leela M.} and Marshall, {Gareth J.} and Val{\'e}rie Masson-Delmotte and Morrison, {Adele K.} and Orsi, {Ana{\"i}s J.} and Raphael, {Marilyn N.} and Renwick, {James A.} and Schneider, {David P.} and Simpkins, {Graham R.} and Steig, {Eric J.} and Barbara Stenni and Didier Swingedouw and Vance, {Tessa R.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature.",

year = "2016",

month = sep,

day = "28",

doi = "10.1038/nclimate3103",

language = "English",

volume = "6",

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journal = "Nature Climate Change",

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Jones, JM, Gille, ST, Goosse, H, Abram, NJ, Canziani, PO, Charman, DJ, Clem, KR, Crosta, X, De Lavergne, C, Eisenman, I, England, MH, Fogt, RL, Frankcombe, LM, Marshall, GJ, Masson-Delmotte, V, Morrison, AK, Orsi, AJ, Raphael, MN, Renwick, JA, Schneider, DP, Simpkins, GR, Steig, EJ, Stenni, B, Swingedouw, D & Vance, TR 2016, 'Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate', Nature Climate Change, vol. 6, no. 10, pp. 917-926. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3103

TY - JOUR

T1 - Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

AU - Jones, Julie M.

AU - Gille, Sarah T.

AU - Goosse, Hugues

AU - Abram, Nerilie J.

AU - Canziani, Pablo O.

AU - Charman, Dan J.

AU - Clem, Kyle R.

AU - Crosta, Xavier

AU - De Lavergne, Casimir

AU - Eisenman, Ian

AU - England, Matthew H.

AU - Fogt, Ryan L.

AU - Frankcombe, Leela M.

AU - Marshall, Gareth J.

AU - Masson-Delmotte, Valérie

AU - Morrison, Adele K.

AU - Orsi, Anaïs J.

AU - Raphael, Marilyn N.

AU - Renwick, James A.

AU - Schneider, David P.

AU - Simpkins, Graham R.

AU - Steig, Eric J.

AU - Stenni, Barbara

AU - Swingedouw, Didier

AU - Vance, Tessa R.

PY - 2016/9/28

Y1 - 2016/9/28

N2 - Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.

AB - Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84989172260&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/nclimate3103

DO - 10.1038/nclimate3103

M3 - Review article

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 6

SP - 917

EP - 926

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 10

ER -

Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate

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