Australia’s Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change

Anjana Devanand; Georgina M. Falster; Zoe E. Gillett; Sanaa Hobeichi; Chiara M. Holgate; Chenhui Jin; Mengyuan Mu; Tess Parker; Sami W. Rifai; Kathleen S. Rome; Milica Stojanovic; Elisabeth Vogel; Nerilie J. Abram; Gab Abramowitz; Sloan Coats; Jason P. Evans; Ailie J.E. Gallant; Andy J. Pitman; Scott B. Power; Surendra P. Rauniyar; Andréa S. Taschetto; Anna M. Ukkola

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adj3460

Australia’s Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change

Anjana Devanand^*, Georgina M. Falster, Zoe E. Gillett, Sanaa Hobeichi, Chiara M. Holgate, Chenhui Jin, Mengyuan Mu, Tess Parker, Sami W. Rifai, Kathleen S. Rome, Milica Stojanovic, Elisabeth Vogel, Nerilie J. Abram, Gab Abramowitz, Sloan Coats, Jason P. Evans, Ailie J.E. Gallant, Andy J. Pitman, Scott B. Power, Surendra P. RauniyarAndréa S. Taschetto, Anna M. Ukkola

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

16 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia’s Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around −50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states. Moisture deficits were intensified by unusually high temperatures, high vapor pressure deficits, and sustained reductions in terrestrial water availability. Anthropogenic forcing intensified the rainfall deficits of the Tinderbox Drought by around 18% with an interquartile range of 34.9 to −13.3% highlighting the considerable uncertainty in attributing droughts of this kind to human activity. Skillful predictability of this drought was possible by incorporating multiple remote and local predictors through machine learning, providing prospects for improving forecasting of droughts.

Original language	English
Article number	eadj3460
Number of pages	22
Journal	Science advances
Volume	10
Issue number	10
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adj3460
Publication status	Published - 6 Mar 2024

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Devanand, A., Falster, G. M., Gillett, Z. E., Hobeichi, S., Holgate, C. M., Jin, C., Mu, M., Parker, T., Rifai, S. W., Rome, K. S., Stojanovic, M., Vogel, E., Abram, N. J., Abramowitz, G., Coats, S., Evans, J. P., Gallant, A. J. E., Pitman, A. J., Power, S. B., ... Ukkola, A. M. (2024). Australia’s Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change. Science advances, 10(10), Article eadj3460. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adj3460

@article{62e4dd87df5942f4b3c87dc0a16a6f18,

title = "Australia{\textquoteright}s Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change",

abstract = "We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia{\textquoteright}s Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around −50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states. Moisture deficits were intensified by unusually high temperatures, high vapor pressure deficits, and sustained reductions in terrestrial water availability. Anthropogenic forcing intensified the rainfall deficits of the Tinderbox Drought by around 18% with an interquartile range of 34.9 to −13.3% highlighting the considerable uncertainty in attributing droughts of this kind to human activity. Skillful predictability of this drought was possible by incorporating multiple remote and local predictors through machine learning, providing prospects for improving forecasting of droughts.",

keywords = "Heatwaves, Rainfall variability, Risk, Sea-surface temperatures, Trends",

author = "Anjana Devanand and Falster, {Georgina M.} and Gillett, {Zoe E.} and Sanaa Hobeichi and Holgate, {Chiara M.} and Chenhui Jin and Mengyuan Mu and Tess Parker and Rifai, {Sami W.} and Rome, {Kathleen S.} and Milica Stojanovic and Elisabeth Vogel and Abram, {Nerilie J.} and Gab Abramowitz and Sloan Coats and Evans, {Jason P.} and Gallant, {Ailie J.E.} and Pitman, {Andy J.} and Power, {Scott B.} and Rauniyar, {Surendra P.} and Taschetto, {Andr{\'e}a S.} and Ukkola, {Anna M.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: Copyright {\textcopyright} 2024 The Authors, some rights reserved.",

year = "2024",

month = mar,

day = "6",

doi = "10.1126/sciadv.adj3460",

language = "English",

volume = "10",

journal = "Science advances",

issn = "2375-2548",

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Devanand, A, Falster, GM, Gillett, ZE, Hobeichi, S, Holgate, CM, Jin, C, Mu, M, Parker, T, Rifai, SW, Rome, KS, Stojanovic, M, Vogel, E, Abram, NJ, Abramowitz, G, Coats, S, Evans, JP, Gallant, AJE, Pitman, AJ, Power, SB, Rauniyar, SP, Taschetto, AS & Ukkola, AM 2024, 'Australia’s Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change', Science advances, vol. 10, no. 10, eadj3460. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adj3460

TY - JOUR

T1 - Australia’s Tinderbox Drought

T2 - An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change

AU - Devanand, Anjana

AU - Falster, Georgina M.

AU - Gillett, Zoe E.

AU - Hobeichi, Sanaa

AU - Holgate, Chiara M.

AU - Jin, Chenhui

AU - Mu, Mengyuan

AU - Parker, Tess

AU - Rifai, Sami W.

AU - Rome, Kathleen S.

AU - Stojanovic, Milica

AU - Vogel, Elisabeth

AU - Abram, Nerilie J.

AU - Abramowitz, Gab

AU - Coats, Sloan

AU - Evans, Jason P.

AU - Gallant, Ailie J.E.

AU - Pitman, Andy J.

AU - Power, Scott B.

AU - Rauniyar, Surendra P.

AU - Taschetto, Andréa S.

AU - Ukkola, Anna M.

PY - 2024/3/6

Y1 - 2024/3/6

N2 - We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia’s Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around −50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states. Moisture deficits were intensified by unusually high temperatures, high vapor pressure deficits, and sustained reductions in terrestrial water availability. Anthropogenic forcing intensified the rainfall deficits of the Tinderbox Drought by around 18% with an interquartile range of 34.9 to −13.3% highlighting the considerable uncertainty in attributing droughts of this kind to human activity. Skillful predictability of this drought was possible by incorporating multiple remote and local predictors through machine learning, providing prospects for improving forecasting of droughts.

AB - We examine the characteristics and causes of southeast Australia’s Tinderbox Drought (2017 to 2019) that preceded the Black Summer fire disaster. The Tinderbox Drought was characterized by cool season rainfall deficits of around −50% in three consecutive years, which was exceptionally unlikely in the context of natural variability alone. The precipitation deficits were initiated and sustained by an anomalous atmospheric circulation that diverted oceanic moisture away from the region, despite traditional indicators of drought risk in southeast Australia generally being in neutral states. Moisture deficits were intensified by unusually high temperatures, high vapor pressure deficits, and sustained reductions in terrestrial water availability. Anthropogenic forcing intensified the rainfall deficits of the Tinderbox Drought by around 18% with an interquartile range of 34.9 to −13.3% highlighting the considerable uncertainty in attributing droughts of this kind to human activity. Skillful predictability of this drought was possible by incorporating multiple remote and local predictors through machine learning, providing prospects for improving forecasting of droughts.

KW - Heatwaves

KW - Rainfall variability

KW - Risk

KW - Sea-surface temperatures

KW - Trends

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85187198292&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.adj3460

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.adj3460

M3 - Article

SN - 2375-2548

VL - 10

JO - Science advances

JF - Science advances

IS - 10

M1 - eadj3460

ER -

Australia’s Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change

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