TY - JOUR
T1 - Beyond the highest life expectancy
T2 - construction of proxy upper and lower life expectancy bounds
AU - Liu, Jia
AU - Li, Jackie
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019, Springer Nature B.V.
PY - 2019/6/15
Y1 - 2019/6/15
N2 - The strong, persistent linear trend of the highest period life expectancy of females at birth, namely best-performance life expectancy, is an interesting global phenomenon which has already lasted for about 150 years. In this article, we study both the highest and lowest period life expectancies of a group of more developed countries and areas, and exploit their recent trends to construct approximate upper and lower bounds as a supplementary tool for future projections. We also seek two modifications of this proposed approach. First, despite that it has remained largely an empirical observation, we intend to examine the use of extreme value theory to provide a more theoretical framework for both the highest and lowest life expectancies. Second, we construct two hypothetical populations with each age experiencing the lowest or highest mortality rate amongst all the populations considered, and extrapolate their life expectancy trends into the future. The resulting life expectancy bounds perform reasonably well in our backtesting exercise and can potentially complement the usual application of a stochastic mortality model to the data of a single country.
AB - The strong, persistent linear trend of the highest period life expectancy of females at birth, namely best-performance life expectancy, is an interesting global phenomenon which has already lasted for about 150 years. In this article, we study both the highest and lowest period life expectancies of a group of more developed countries and areas, and exploit their recent trends to construct approximate upper and lower bounds as a supplementary tool for future projections. We also seek two modifications of this proposed approach. First, despite that it has remained largely an empirical observation, we intend to examine the use of extreme value theory to provide a more theoretical framework for both the highest and lowest life expectancies. Second, we construct two hypothetical populations with each age experiencing the lowest or highest mortality rate amongst all the populations considered, and extrapolate their life expectancy trends into the future. The resulting life expectancy bounds perform reasonably well in our backtesting exercise and can potentially complement the usual application of a stochastic mortality model to the data of a single country.
KW - Best-performance life expectancy
KW - Extreme value theory
KW - Generalised extreme value distribution
KW - Lee–Carter models
KW - Maxima and minima
KW - Upper and lower bounds
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85071722702&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s12546-019-09221-0
DO - 10.1007/s12546-019-09221-0
M3 - Article
SN - 1443-2447
VL - 36
SP - 159
EP - 181
JO - Journal of Population Research
JF - Journal of Population Research
IS - 2
ER -