Bipolarity and the Future of the Security Order in East Asia

William Tow

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    ASEAN is in danger of becoming marginalized as East Asian security becomes increasingly shaped by such volatile flashpoints as a nuclear North Korea and a South China Sea increasingly dominated by quarrels over sovereignty and maritime security. Accordingly, the notion of ASEAN centrality is now being seriously challenged and is unlikely to prevail against the growing bipolar security environment shaped by China and the United States. ASEAN and other Asia-Pacific states could gravitate toward one of five alternative order-building scenarios: (i) A Sino-American condominium that defines and accepts each others geopolitical sphere of influence; (ii) The replacement or substantial revision of the United States bilateral alliance system with the expansion of multilateral norms and instrumentalities; (iii) The gradual predominance of an Asia for Asians concept led by China but endorsed by a substantial number of Southeast Asian states; (iv) Effective balancing and hedging by smaller states and middle powers, leading to eventual great power acceptance of a regional power equilibrium; (v) An intensification of regional community building via an amorphous but wide-ranging series of economic, ideological and strategic compromises to make war unthinkable and to strengthen regional interdependence. However, none of these five scenarios is likely to predominate in a literal sense. Instead, the realist explanation for understanding 16-1518 01 Trends_2016-10.indd 7 12/7/16 2:21 PM security in the region is the most accurate forecast for understanding an East Asian security environment that is becoming increasingly disorderly. ASEAN can still play a constructive if not central role in shaping East Asias strategic environment by working with China and the United States to strengthen confidence-building in regional security politics and to encourage their respect for strategic constraint.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1-33
    JournalTrends in Southeast Asia
    Volume2016
    Issue number10
    Publication statusPublished - 2015

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'Bipolarity and the Future of the Security Order in East Asia'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this