Bridging extreme climate risks, financial precarity, and adaptation gaps: Advancing inclusive adaptation in rainfed agricultural systems

The intensification of extreme climate events is no longer a distant threat but is a pressing, global reality for smallholders. This study unpacks the complex interconnections among extreme climate events, perceived risks, and financial constraints to adaptation by integrating multi-source evidence – from historical climate trends and downscaled climate projections from 25 General Circulation Models to household census data from 996 smallholder households in Northwest Cambodia’s rainfed agricultural region. Employing statistical modelling, change detection, trend analysis, and correlation assessments, this study uncovers intensifying and shifting patterns in wet and dry spells, uncovering their cascading effects on smallholder rainfed agricultural productivity. These findings reveal a worsening pattern of extreme wet and dry spells. Prolonged wet periods are increasing risks of flooding, soil erosion, and nutrient leaching, while prolonged dry spells lasting up to 35 days threaten agricultural productivity and food security. Climate projections under SSP245 and SSP585 indicate increased intensification of these extremes, with wet spells lengthening at three times the rate under high-emissions scenarios and dry spells becoming shorter yet more severe. The majority of smallholders perceive intense rainfall and agricultural drought as the most pressing climate risks, aligning with observed trends, while financial constraints emerge as a critical barrier to adaptation. These findings underscore the pressing need for an interdisciplinary approach that integrates climate science, socio-economic realities, and policy frameworks. Advancing inclusive, systems-level adaptation requires expanding access to climate finance, risk-sharing mechanisms, and extension services, alongside strengthening climate literacy and early warning systems. This study contributes to global adaptation discourse by offering actionable insights to inform equitable, context-specific policies that enhance smallholder resilience to climate extremes.