British and Irish public opinion towards the Northern Ireland problem

Four publics are involved in any resolution of the Northern Ireland problem: the Northern Ireland public itself, divided between Protestant and Catholic; and the British and Irish publics. This paper examines trends in public opinion towards Northern Ireland in Britain and Ireland since the current conflict began in 1968. The results show that British opinion has been both stable and negative over the period, favouring any solution other than the status quo. When the survey question concerns British troop withdrawal, a majority favour it; when the question concerns constitutional options, a majority will favour anything other than continued union with Britain. Irish public opinion is more complex and correspondingly less stable. While unity remains an aspiration for the majority, support for it has declined to its lowest point at any time since the start of the troubles. At the same time, Irish opinion has displayed a dramatic shift in support for changes in Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution. The lack of interest displayed by British public opinion coupled with the new flexibility in Irish public opinion may well create the best preconditions for a resolution to the problem seen in a quarter of a century.