Children and marital dissolution in China

Using data for women from the 2010, 2012 and 2014 Chinese Family Panel Studies, this study investigated several aspects of children’s effects on the risk of marital dissolution, including the number of children, their age and sex composition, and the timing of conception relative to marriage. Because these explanatory variables are potentially endogenous, marital dissolution was jointly modelled with the processes of marriage formation, marital childbearing and nonmarital childbearing, and the sequencing of events and unobserved correlation across processes accounted for. The results demonstrated that childlessness significantly elevates the risk of divorce whereas the first child has the strongest marriage stabilising effect. Reflecting the strong son preference in rural China, having boys was shown to markedly reduce the risk of parental divorce among rural women. Whether a child is conceived within or out of wedlock has no significant causal effect on marital dissolution insofar as it belongs to both parents. However, positive residual correlation between the processes of divorce and nonmarital childbearing suggests the potential selection of women with non-traditional family behaviours into marital dissolution.