Climate Change and the Geographical Distribution of Infectious Diseases

David Harley*, Ashwin Swaminathan, Anthony J. Mcmichael

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterpeer-review

    3 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Some infectious agents, cytomegalovirus for example, are ubiquitous in human populations, whereas most are limited in their geographical distribution. Some infectious diseases occur readily all year round; others have a strong seasonal association. A major limiting influence on these spatial and temporal variations is the climate. Temperature, rainfall, humidity, and consequent physical and ecological characteristics of the environment set limits on the occurrence of a particular infectious disease. However, many other social, cultural, behavioral, technological, biological, and environmental factors act to determine where that infectious disease actually does occur. A new and potent variable is now entering the equation: namely, climate change. Determining the extent to which climate change has altered and will alter the distribution of infectious diseases of humans is therefore a new and important challenge. Answers will often not come easily, but this vital challenge must be addressed. Human-induced climate change is now regarded, with near-unanimous shared understanding and agreement among climate scientists, as both real and manifestly happening (see http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2010/pr20100728.html). Further, on current evidence and trajectories, it seems increasingly likely that global average temperature will increase by about 3°C by later this century [1]. This will inevitably affect the geography and temporality of various infectious diseases, such as airborne, waterborne, food-borne, and vector-borne diseases.

    Original languageEnglish
    Title of host publicationInfectious Diseases
    Subtitle of host publicationA Geographic Guide
    PublisherWiley-Blackwell
    Pages414-423
    Number of pages10
    ISBN (Print)9780470655290
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 16 May 2011

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