Climate change, conflict, complexity and health

This chapter provides a selective literature review of the theoretical reasons that link resource scarcity, social capacity, confict and climate change. It fnds that many outcomes associated with climate change are likely to amplify the risk of confict, particularly via shortages of food, water and arable land. It is strongly recognized that climate change does not operate independently of history or politics, contrary to the claims sometimes advanced by critics. The chapter examines two case studies involving civil war: Darfur, Sudan (1980s-2005), and Syria (2012-present). It fnds that scarcity, partly induced by environmental factors, was an important driver for each. Climate change, intersecting with the co-factors that drive confict, has the potential to trigger devastating harm to human health.