Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Freya C. Womersley; Lara L. Sousa; Nicolas E. Humphries; Kátya Abrantes; Gonzalo Araujo; Steffen S. Bach; Adam Barnett; Michael L. Berumen; Sandra Bessudo Lion; Camrin D. Braun; Elizabeth Clingham; Jesse E.M. Cochran; Rafael de la Parra; Stella Diamant; Alistair D.M. Dove; Carlos M. Duarte; Christine L. Dudgeon; Mark V. Erdmann; Eduardo Espinoza; Luciana C. Ferreira; Richard Fitzpatrick; Jaime González Cano; Jonathan R. Green; Hector M. Guzman; Royale Hardenstine; Abdi Hasan; Fábio H.V. Hazin; Alex R. Hearn; Robert E. Hueter; Mohammed Y. Jaidah; Jessica Labaja; Felipe Ladino; Bruno C.L. Macena; Mark G. Meekan; John J. Morris; Bradley M. Norman; Cesar R. Peñaherrera-Palma; Simon J. Pierce; Lina Maria Quintero; Dení Ramírez-Macías; Samantha D. Reynolds; David P. Robinson; Christoph A. Rohner; David R.L. Rowat; Ana M.M. Sequeira; Marcus Sheaves; Mahmood S. Shivji; Abraham B. Sianipar; Gregory B. Skomal; German Soler; Ismail Syakurachman; S. R. Thorrold; Michele Thums; John P. Tyminski; D. Harry Webb; B. Wetherbee; N. Queiroz; D. W. Sims

doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Freya C. Womersley^*, Lara L. Sousa, Nicolas E. Humphries, Kátya Abrantes, Gonzalo Araujo, Steffen S. Bach, Adam Barnett, Michael L. Berumen, Sandra Bessudo Lion, Camrin D. Braun, Elizabeth Clingham, Jesse E.M. Cochran, Rafael de la Parra, Stella Diamant, Alistair D.M. Dove, Carlos M. Duarte, Christine L. Dudgeon, Mark V. Erdmann, Eduardo Espinoza, Luciana C. FerreiraRichard Fitzpatrick, Jaime González Cano, Jonathan R. Green, Hector M. Guzman, Royale Hardenstine, Abdi Hasan, Fábio H.V. Hazin, Alex R. Hearn, Robert E. Hueter, Mohammed Y. Jaidah, Jessica Labaja, Felipe Ladino, Bruno C.L. Macena, Mark G. Meekan, John J. Morris, Bradley M. Norman, Cesar R. Peñaherrera-Palma, Simon J. Pierce, Lina Maria Quintero, Dení Ramírez-Macías, Samantha D. Reynolds, David P. Robinson, Christoph A. Rohner, David R.L. Rowat, Ana M.M. Sequeira, Marcus Sheaves, Mahmood S. Shivji, Abraham B. Sianipar, Gregory B. Skomal, German Soler, Ismail Syakurachman, S. R. Thorrold, Michele Thums, John P. Tyminski, D. Harry Webb, B. Wetherbee, N. Queiroz, D. W. Sims

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world’s largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species’ co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr⁻¹). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.

Original language	English
Number of pages	30
Journal	Nature Climate Change
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5
Publication status	Accepted/In press - 2024

Access to Document

10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

Cite this

Womersley, F. C., Sousa, L. L., Humphries, N. E., Abrantes, K., Araujo, G., Bach, S. S., Barnett, A., Berumen, M. L., Lion, S. B., Braun, C. D., Clingham, E., Cochran, J. E. M., de la Parra, R., Diamant, S., Dove, A. D. M., Duarte, C. M., Dudgeon, C. L., Erdmann, M. V., Espinoza, E., ... Sims, D. W. (Accepted/In press). Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

@article{ed21243458154d319243f1a84e87f88f,

title = "Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping",

abstract = "Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world{\textquoteright}s largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species{\textquoteright} co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr−1). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.",

author = "Womersley, {Freya C.} and Sousa, {Lara L.} and Humphries, {Nicolas E.} and K{\'a}tya Abrantes and Gonzalo Araujo and Bach, {Steffen S.} and Adam Barnett and Berumen, {Michael L.} and Lion, {Sandra Bessudo} and Braun, {Camrin D.} and Elizabeth Clingham and Cochran, {Jesse E.M.} and {de la Parra}, Rafael and Stella Diamant and Dove, {Alistair D.M.} and Duarte, {Carlos M.} and Dudgeon, {Christine L.} and Erdmann, {Mark V.} and Eduardo Espinoza and Ferreira, {Luciana C.} and Richard Fitzpatrick and Cano, {Jaime Gonz{\'a}lez} and Green, {Jonathan R.} and Guzman, {Hector M.} and Royale Hardenstine and Abdi Hasan and Hazin, {F{\'a}bio H.V.} and Hearn, {Alex R.} and Hueter, {Robert E.} and Jaidah, {Mohammed Y.} and Jessica Labaja and Felipe Ladino and Macena, {Bruno C.L.} and Meekan, {Mark G.} and Morris, {John J.} and Norman, {Bradley M.} and Pe{\~n}aherrera-Palma, {Cesar R.} and Pierce, {Simon J.} and Quintero, {Lina Maria} and Den{\'i} Ram{\'i}rez-Mac{\'i}as and Reynolds, {Samantha D.} and Robinson, {David P.} and Rohner, {Christoph A.} and Rowat, {David R.L.} and Sequeira, {Ana M.M.} and Marcus Sheaves and Shivji, {Mahmood S.} and Sianipar, {Abraham B.} and Skomal, {Gregory B.} and German Soler and Ismail Syakurachman and Thorrold, {S. R.} and Michele Thums and Tyminski, {John P.} and Webb, {D. Harry} and B. Wetherbee and N. Queiroz and Sims, {D. W.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2024.",

year = "2024",

doi = "10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5",

language = "English",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

issn = "1758-678X",

publisher = "Nature Publishing Group",

}

Womersley, FC, Sousa, LL, Humphries, NE, Abrantes, K, Araujo, G, Bach, SS, Barnett, A, Berumen, ML, Lion, SB, Braun, CD, Clingham, E, Cochran, JEM, de la Parra, R, Diamant, S, Dove, ADM, Duarte, CM, Dudgeon, CL, Erdmann, MV, Espinoza, E, Ferreira, LC, Fitzpatrick, R, Cano, JG, Green, JR, Guzman, HM, Hardenstine, R, Hasan, A, Hazin, FHV, Hearn, AR, Hueter, RE, Jaidah, MY, Labaja, J, Ladino, F, Macena, BCL, Meekan, MG, Morris, JJ, Norman, BM, Peñaherrera-Palma, CR, Pierce, SJ, Quintero, LM, Ramírez-Macías, D, Reynolds, SD, Robinson, DP, Rohner, CA, Rowat, DRL, Sequeira, AMM, Sheaves, M, Shivji, MS, Sianipar, AB, Skomal, GB, Soler, G, Syakurachman, I, Thorrold, SR, Thums, M, Tyminski, JP, Webb, DH, Wetherbee, B, Queiroz, N & Sims, DW 2024, 'Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping', Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

TY - JOUR

T1 - Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

AU - Womersley, Freya C.

AU - Sousa, Lara L.

AU - Humphries, Nicolas E.

AU - Abrantes, Kátya

AU - Araujo, Gonzalo

AU - Bach, Steffen S.

AU - Barnett, Adam

AU - Berumen, Michael L.

AU - Lion, Sandra Bessudo

AU - Braun, Camrin D.

AU - Clingham, Elizabeth

AU - Cochran, Jesse E.M.

AU - de la Parra, Rafael

AU - Diamant, Stella

AU - Dove, Alistair D.M.

AU - Duarte, Carlos M.

AU - Dudgeon, Christine L.

AU - Erdmann, Mark V.

AU - Espinoza, Eduardo

AU - Ferreira, Luciana C.

AU - Fitzpatrick, Richard

AU - Cano, Jaime González

AU - Green, Jonathan R.

AU - Guzman, Hector M.

AU - Hardenstine, Royale

AU - Hasan, Abdi

AU - Hazin, Fábio H.V.

AU - Hearn, Alex R.

AU - Hueter, Robert E.

AU - Jaidah, Mohammed Y.

AU - Labaja, Jessica

AU - Ladino, Felipe

AU - Macena, Bruno C.L.

AU - Meekan, Mark G.

AU - Morris, John J.

AU - Norman, Bradley M.

AU - Peñaherrera-Palma, Cesar R.

AU - Pierce, Simon J.

AU - Quintero, Lina Maria

AU - Ramírez-Macías, Dení

AU - Reynolds, Samantha D.

AU - Robinson, David P.

AU - Rohner, Christoph A.

AU - Rowat, David R.L.

AU - Sequeira, Ana M.M.

AU - Sheaves, Marcus

AU - Shivji, Mahmood S.

AU - Sianipar, Abraham B.

AU - Skomal, Gregory B.

AU - Soler, German

AU - Syakurachman, Ismail

AU - Thorrold, S. R.

AU - Thums, Michele

AU - Tyminski, John P.

AU - Webb, D. Harry

AU - Wetherbee, B.

AU - Queiroz, N.

AU - Sims, D. W.

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world’s largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species’ co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr−1). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.

AB - Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world’s largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species’ co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr−1). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85205967646&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

DO - 10.1038/s41558-024-02129-5

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85205967646

SN - 1758-678X

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

ER -

Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Abstract

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this