TY - JOUR
T1 - Climate projections for ecologists
AU - Harris, Rebecca Mary B.
AU - Grose, Michael R.
AU - Lee, Greg
AU - Bindoff, Nathaniel L.
AU - Porfirio, Luciana L.
AU - Fox-Hughes, Paul
PY - 2014
Y1 - 2014
N2 - Climate projections are essential for studying ecological responses to climate change, and their use is now common in ecology. However, the lack of integration between ecology and climate science has restricted understanding of the available climate data and their appropriate use. We provide an overview of climate model outputs and issues that need to be considered when applying projections of future climate in ecological studies. We outline the strengths and weaknesses of available climate projections, the uncertainty associated with future projections at different spatial and temporal scales, the differences between available downscaling methods (dynamical, statistical downscaling, and simple scaling of global circulation model output), and the implications these have for ecological models. We describe some of the changes in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including the new representative concentration pathways. We highlight some of the challenges in using model projections in ecological studies and suggest how to effectively address them.
AB - Climate projections are essential for studying ecological responses to climate change, and their use is now common in ecology. However, the lack of integration between ecology and climate science has restricted understanding of the available climate data and their appropriate use. We provide an overview of climate model outputs and issues that need to be considered when applying projections of future climate in ecological studies. We outline the strengths and weaknesses of available climate projections, the uncertainty associated with future projections at different spatial and temporal scales, the differences between available downscaling methods (dynamical, statistical downscaling, and simple scaling of global circulation model output), and the implications these have for ecological models. We describe some of the changes in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including the new representative concentration pathways. We highlight some of the challenges in using model projections in ecological studies and suggest how to effectively address them.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84906224968&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/wcc.291
DO - 10.1002/wcc.291
M3 - Review article
SN - 1757-7780
VL - 5
SP - 621
EP - 637
JO - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
JF - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
IS - 5
ER -