Climate projections for ecologists

Rebecca Mary B. Harris*, Michael R. Grose, Greg Lee, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Luciana L. Porfirio, Paul Fox-Hughes

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

    150 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Climate projections are essential for studying ecological responses to climate change, and their use is now common in ecology. However, the lack of integration between ecology and climate science has restricted understanding of the available climate data and their appropriate use. We provide an overview of climate model outputs and issues that need to be considered when applying projections of future climate in ecological studies. We outline the strengths and weaknesses of available climate projections, the uncertainty associated with future projections at different spatial and temporal scales, the differences between available downscaling methods (dynamical, statistical downscaling, and simple scaling of global circulation model output), and the implications these have for ecological models. We describe some of the changes in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), including the new representative concentration pathways. We highlight some of the challenges in using model projections in ecological studies and suggest how to effectively address them.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)621-637
    Number of pages17
    JournalWiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
    Volume5
    Issue number5
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 2014

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