Climatic, high tide and vector variables and the transmission of Ross River virus

Shilu Tong; W. Hu; N. Nicholls; P. Dale; J. S. MacKenzie; J. Patz; A. J. McMichael

doi:10.1111/j.1445-5994.2005.00935.x

Climatic, high tide and vector variables and the transmission of Ross River virus

Shilu Tong^*, W. Hu, N. Nicholls, P. Dale, J. S. MacKenzie, J. Patz, A. J. McMichael

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

33 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This report assesses the impact of the variability in environmental and vector factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) in Brisbane, Australia. Poisson time series regression analyses were conducted using monthly data on the counts of RRV cases, climate variables (Southern Oscillation Index and rainfall), high tides and mosquito density for the period of 1998-2001. The results indicate that increases in the high tide (relative risk (RR): 1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-2.26), rainfall (RR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.21-1.73), mosquito density (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09-1.27), the density of Culex annulirostris (RR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.13-1.37) and the density of Ochlerotatus vigilax (RR: 2.39; 95% CI: 2.30-2.48), each at a lag of 1 month, were statistically significantly associated with the rise of monthly RRV incidence. The results of the present study might facilitate the development of early warning systems for reducing the incidence of this wide-spread disease in Australia and other Pacific island nations.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	677-680
Number of pages	4
Journal	Internal Medicine Journal
Volume	35
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1445-5994.2005.00935.x
Publication status	Published - Nov 2005

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10.1111/j.1445-5994.2005.00935.x

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title = "Climatic, high tide and vector variables and the transmission of Ross River virus",

abstract = "This report assesses the impact of the variability in environmental and vector factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) in Brisbane, Australia. Poisson time series regression analyses were conducted using monthly data on the counts of RRV cases, climate variables (Southern Oscillation Index and rainfall), high tides and mosquito density for the period of 1998-2001. The results indicate that increases in the high tide (relative risk (RR): 1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-2.26), rainfall (RR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.21-1.73), mosquito density (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09-1.27), the density of Culex annulirostris (RR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.13-1.37) and the density of Ochlerotatus vigilax (RR: 2.39; 95% CI: 2.30-2.48), each at a lag of 1 month, were statistically significantly associated with the rise of monthly RRV incidence. The results of the present study might facilitate the development of early warning systems for reducing the incidence of this wide-spread disease in Australia and other Pacific island nations.",

keywords = "Climate, Ross River virus, Time series, Vector",

author = "Shilu Tong and W. Hu and N. Nicholls and P. Dale and MacKenzie, {J. S.} and J. Patz and McMichael, {A. J.}",

year = "2005",

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AU - Tong, Shilu

AU - Hu, W.

AU - Nicholls, N.

AU - Dale, P.

AU - MacKenzie, J. S.

AU - Patz, J.

AU - McMichael, A. J.

PY - 2005/11

Y1 - 2005/11

N2 - This report assesses the impact of the variability in environmental and vector factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) in Brisbane, Australia. Poisson time series regression analyses were conducted using monthly data on the counts of RRV cases, climate variables (Southern Oscillation Index and rainfall), high tides and mosquito density for the period of 1998-2001. The results indicate that increases in the high tide (relative risk (RR): 1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-2.26), rainfall (RR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.21-1.73), mosquito density (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09-1.27), the density of Culex annulirostris (RR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.13-1.37) and the density of Ochlerotatus vigilax (RR: 2.39; 95% CI: 2.30-2.48), each at a lag of 1 month, were statistically significantly associated with the rise of monthly RRV incidence. The results of the present study might facilitate the development of early warning systems for reducing the incidence of this wide-spread disease in Australia and other Pacific island nations.

AB - This report assesses the impact of the variability in environmental and vector factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) in Brisbane, Australia. Poisson time series regression analyses were conducted using monthly data on the counts of RRV cases, climate variables (Southern Oscillation Index and rainfall), high tides and mosquito density for the period of 1998-2001. The results indicate that increases in the high tide (relative risk (RR): 1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.20-2.26), rainfall (RR: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.21-1.73), mosquito density (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09-1.27), the density of Culex annulirostris (RR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.13-1.37) and the density of Ochlerotatus vigilax (RR: 2.39; 95% CI: 2.30-2.48), each at a lag of 1 month, were statistically significantly associated with the rise of monthly RRV incidence. The results of the present study might facilitate the development of early warning systems for reducing the incidence of this wide-spread disease in Australia and other Pacific island nations.

KW - Climate

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KW - Time series

KW - Vector

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DO - 10.1111/j.1445-5994.2005.00935.x

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VL - 35

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JO - Internal Medicine Journal

JF - Internal Medicine Journal

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Climatic, high tide and vector variables and the transmission of Ross River virus

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