Comparing climate sensitivity, past and present

Eelco J. Rohling*, Gianluca Marino, Gavin L. Foster, Philip A. Goodwin, Anna S. Von Der Heydt, Peter Köhler

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

    34 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)261-288
    Number of pages28
    JournalAnnual Review of Marine Science
    Volume10
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 3 Jan 2018

    Fingerprint

    Dive into the research topics of 'Comparing climate sensitivity, past and present'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

    Cite this