Cracks before the crisis: Polarization prior to COVID-19 predicts increased collective angst and economic pessimism

We examine how polarization within societies is associated with reduced confidence in national responses to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis. We surveyed 4,731 participants across nine countries at Wave 1 (France, Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Thailand, the United Kingdom and the United States), and then, at Wave 2 (3 months later), we recontacted 840 participants from two countries (the United Kingdom and the United States). We found that perceived polarization in the years preceding COVID-19 predicted an enhanced perception that a country's COVID response was anomic (i.e., disorganized, chaotic), which in turn predicted greater collective angst and economic pessimism. Moreover, polarization measured at Wave 1 continued to predict perceptions that the COVID-19 response was anomic at Wave 2, and, in turn, enhanced collective angst, pessimism, and the perception that dramatic political change was required to recover from COVID-19. Our findings highlight how polarization may be associated with reduced confidence in leaders and governments at times of crisis, and how this predicts future-focused anxiety and pessimism.