Decision support system for adaptive regional-scale forest management by multiple decision-makers

Various kinds of decision support approaches (DSAs) are used in adaptive management of forests. Existing DSAs are aimed at coping with uncertainties in ecosystems but not controllability of outcomes, which is important for regional management. We designed a DSA for forest zoning to simulate the changes in indicators of forest functions while reducing uncertainties in both controllability and ecosystems. The DSA uses a Bayesian network model based on iterative learning of observed behavior (decision-making) by foresters, which simulates when and where zoned forestry activities are implemented. The DSA was applied to a study area to evaluate wood production, protection against soil erosion, preservation of biodiversity, and carbon retention under three zoning alternatives: current zoning, zoning to enhance biodiversity, and zoning to enhance wood production. The DSA predicted that alternative zoning could enhance wood production by 3-11% and increase preservation of biodiversity by 0.4%, but decrease carbon stock by 1.2%. This DSA would enable to draw up regional forest plans while considering trade-offs and build consensus more efficiently.