TY - JOUR
T1 - Deterministic probability
T2 - Neither chance nor credence
AU - Lyon, Aidan
PY - 2011/10
Y1 - 2011/10
N2 - Some have argued that chance and determinism are compatible in order to account for the objectivity of probabilities in theories that are compatible with determinism, like Classical Statistical Mechanics (CSM) and Evolutionary Theory (ET). Contrarily, some have argued that chance and determinism are incompatible, and so such probabilities are subjective. In this paper, I argue that both of these positions are unsatisfactory. I argue that the probabilities of theories like CSM and ET are not chances, but also that they are not subjective probabilities either. Rather, they are a third type of probability, which I call counterfactual probability. The main distinguishing feature of counterfactual-probability is the role it plays in conveying important counterfactual information in explanations. This distinguishes counterfactual probability from chance as a second concept of objective probability.
AB - Some have argued that chance and determinism are compatible in order to account for the objectivity of probabilities in theories that are compatible with determinism, like Classical Statistical Mechanics (CSM) and Evolutionary Theory (ET). Contrarily, some have argued that chance and determinism are incompatible, and so such probabilities are subjective. In this paper, I argue that both of these positions are unsatisfactory. I argue that the probabilities of theories like CSM and ET are not chances, but also that they are not subjective probabilities either. Rather, they are a third type of probability, which I call counterfactual probability. The main distinguishing feature of counterfactual-probability is the role it plays in conveying important counterfactual information in explanations. This distinguishes counterfactual probability from chance as a second concept of objective probability.
KW - Chance
KW - Credence
KW - Determinism
KW - Objective probability
KW - Probability concepts
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80052262325&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s11229-010-9750-2
DO - 10.1007/s11229-010-9750-2
M3 - Article
SN - 0039-7857
VL - 182
SP - 413
EP - 432
JO - Synthese
JF - Synthese
IS - 3
ER -