Did migrants rally ‘round the flag? The heterogeneous impacts of recent global tumult on social trust between migrant and native-born populations

Theory and evidence suggest that personal and collective crises can have galvanising effects on society, strengthening people’s emotional and social bonds and trust. In view of recent global events, ranging from the COVID-19 pandemic to more recent social and economic tumult, polarisation and division, including over attitudes to immigration, it might be expected that any positive effects would be unequal and time-limited, particularly for immigrant populations. In this study, a quasi-experimental design is used to estimate the social impacts of recent tumult on immigrant populations in Australia. Treating the COVID-19 and subsequent periods as exogenous shocks and drawing on a longitudinal survey that interviewed respondents over an eight-year period between 2018 and 2025, the extent to which trust in people (generalised trust) and trust in government changed during the period is measured for native-born and immigrant populations. The findings show that trust increased after 2020 for native-born populations, with changes significantly weaker for recently arrived immigrant arrivals. No single factor or set of factors explains the lack of a galvanising response among migrant populations, though inequalities are likely contributors. The results are important for understanding the pressures and strains on intercultural harmony and social cohesion in the contemporary world.