Discrete choice, agent based and system dynamics simulation of health profession career paths

Terry Flynn, Yuan Tian, Keith Masnick, Geoff McDonnell, Elisabeth Huynh, Alex Mair, Nathaniel Osgood

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Modelling real workforce choices accurately via Agent Based Models and System Dynamics requires input data on the actual preferences of individual agents. Often lack of data means that analysts can have an understanding of how agents move through the system, but not why, and when. Hybrid models incorporating discrete choice experiments (DCE) solve this. Unlike simplistic neoclassical economic models, DCEs build on 50 years of well-tested consumer theory that decomposes the utility (benefit) derived from the agent's preferred choice into that associated with its constituent parts, but also allows agents different degrees of certainty in their discrete choices (heteroscedasticity on the latent scale). We use DCE data in populating a System Dynamics/Agent Based Model - one of choices of optometrists and their employers. It shows that low overall predictive power conceals heterogeneity in agents' preferences. Incorporating such preferences in our hybrid approach improves the model's explanatory power and accuracy.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2014
EditorsAndreas Tolk, Levent Yilmaz, Saikou Y. Diallo, Ilya O. Ryzhov
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages1700-1711
Number of pages12
ISBN (Electronic)9781479974863
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 23 Jan 2015
Externally publishedYes
Event2014 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2014 - Savannah, United States
Duration: 7 Dec 201410 Dec 2014

Publication series

NameProceedings - Winter Simulation Conference
Volume2015-January
ISSN (Print)0891-7736

Conference

Conference2014 Winter Simulation Conference, WSC 2014
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CitySavannah
Period7/12/1410/12/14

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