Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning-Caused Fires

Krishna Rao; A. Park Williams; Noah S. Diffenbaugh; Marta Yebra; Colleen Bryant; Alexandra G. Konings

doi:10.1029/2022GL100975

Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning-Caused Fires

Krishna Rao^*, A. Park Williams, Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Marta Yebra, Colleen Bryant, Alexandra G. Konings

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a key determinant of landscape ignition potential, but quantitative estimates of its effects on wildfire are lacking. We present a causal inference framework to isolate the effect of LFMC from other drivers like fuel type, fuel amount, and meteorology. We show that in California when LFMC is below a critical flammability threshold, the likelihood of fires is 1.8 times as high statewide (2.25% vs. 1.27%) and 2.5 times as high in shrubs, compared to when LFMC is greater than the threshold. This risk ratio is >2 times when LFMC is 10% less than the threshold. Between 2016 and 2021, the risk ratio was highest in 2020 (2.3 times), potentially contributing to the record-breaking wildfire activity in 2020. Our estimates can inform several wildfire prediction and management applications, including wildfire suppression, prescribed burn planning, and public safety power shutoff implementation.

Original language	English
Article number	e2022GL100975
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	50
Issue number	15
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100975
Publication status	Published - 16 Aug 2023

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10.1029/2022GL100975Licence: CC BY

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title = "Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning-Caused Fires",

abstract = "Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a key determinant of landscape ignition potential, but quantitative estimates of its effects on wildfire are lacking. We present a causal inference framework to isolate the effect of LFMC from other drivers like fuel type, fuel amount, and meteorology. We show that in California when LFMC is below a critical flammability threshold, the likelihood of fires is 1.8 times as high statewide (2.25\% vs. 1.27\%) and 2.5 times as high in shrubs, compared to when LFMC is greater than the threshold. This risk ratio is >2 times when LFMC is 10\% less than the threshold. Between 2016 and 2021, the risk ratio was highest in 2020 (2.3 times), potentially contributing to the record-breaking wildfire activity in 2020. Our estimates can inform several wildfire prediction and management applications, including wildfire suppression, prescribed burn planning, and public safety power shutoff implementation.",

keywords = "causal inference, drought, ecohydrology, live fuel moisture content, remote sensing, wildfires",

author = "Krishna Rao and Williams, \{A. Park\} and Diffenbaugh, \{Noah S.\} and Marta Yebra and Colleen Bryant and Konings, \{Alexandra G.\}",

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T1 - Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning-Caused Fires

AU - Rao, Krishna

AU - Williams, A. Park

AU - Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

AU - Yebra, Marta

AU - Bryant, Colleen

AU - Konings, Alexandra G.

PY - 2023/8/16

Y1 - 2023/8/16

N2 - Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a key determinant of landscape ignition potential, but quantitative estimates of its effects on wildfire are lacking. We present a causal inference framework to isolate the effect of LFMC from other drivers like fuel type, fuel amount, and meteorology. We show that in California when LFMC is below a critical flammability threshold, the likelihood of fires is 1.8 times as high statewide (2.25% vs. 1.27%) and 2.5 times as high in shrubs, compared to when LFMC is greater than the threshold. This risk ratio is >2 times when LFMC is 10% less than the threshold. Between 2016 and 2021, the risk ratio was highest in 2020 (2.3 times), potentially contributing to the record-breaking wildfire activity in 2020. Our estimates can inform several wildfire prediction and management applications, including wildfire suppression, prescribed burn planning, and public safety power shutoff implementation.

AB - Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a key determinant of landscape ignition potential, but quantitative estimates of its effects on wildfire are lacking. We present a causal inference framework to isolate the effect of LFMC from other drivers like fuel type, fuel amount, and meteorology. We show that in California when LFMC is below a critical flammability threshold, the likelihood of fires is 1.8 times as high statewide (2.25% vs. 1.27%) and 2.5 times as high in shrubs, compared to when LFMC is greater than the threshold. This risk ratio is >2 times when LFMC is 10% less than the threshold. Between 2016 and 2021, the risk ratio was highest in 2020 (2.3 times), potentially contributing to the record-breaking wildfire activity in 2020. Our estimates can inform several wildfire prediction and management applications, including wildfire suppression, prescribed burn planning, and public safety power shutoff implementation.

KW - causal inference

KW - drought

KW - ecohydrology

KW - live fuel moisture content

KW - remote sensing

KW - wildfires

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85166674967

U2 - 10.1029/2022GL100975

DO - 10.1029/2022GL100975

M3 - Article

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 50

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 15

M1 - e2022GL100975

ER -

Dry Live Fuels Increase the Likelihood of Lightning-Caused Fires

Abstract

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