Abstract
Hydrogen gained a lot of attention as an energy carrier to achieving the goal of net-zero emissions targeted by many governments and businesses around the world. Yet, the high production cost of zero-emission ‘renewable’ hydrogen, produced from electrolysis powered by renewable electricity, is hindering its adoption. In this paper, we examine the dynamics of the transition to renewable hydrogen and the role of uncertainties in projections of techno-economic factors on the transition. We propose an integrated framework, linking techno-economic and Monte-Carlo-based uncertainty analysis with quantitative hydrogen supply-demand modelling, to examine hydrogen production by different technologies, and the GHG emissions from feedstock supply and the production process. We find that without taking into account the cost of carbon emissions, hydrogen production will likely be dominated by fossil fuels for the next few decades, while implementing a price on carbon emissions can significantly expedite the transition to renewable hydrogen and cut the cumulative emissions significantly.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Publication status | Published - 2021 |
| Event | International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 2021 - Chicago, United States Duration: 26 Jul 2021 → 30 Jul 2021 Conference number: 39th https://www.proceedings.com/content/062/062774webtoc.pdf https://systemdynamics.org/conference-2021/ |
Conference
| Conference | International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 2021 |
|---|---|
| Abbreviated title | 2021 System Dynamics Conference |
| Country/Territory | United States |
| City | Chicago |
| Period | 26/07/21 → 30/07/21 |
| Other | The International System Dynamics Conference is an annual event where people from all over the world interested in the practice of System Dynamics and systems thinking gather. Now in its 39th year, the Conference appeals to audiences across industry and academia. These conferences introduce newcomers to the field, keep practitioners aware of current developments, and provide unparalleled networking opportunities. Participants come from business, universities, K-12 education, not-for-profits, government, consulting, the healthcare sector, and beyond. This year’s conference will be held virtually – if circumstances change we may also consider gatherings in Chicago and elsewhere – stay tuned. In this year’s conference, we will explore how System Dynamics allows us to generate insight into the drivers of problems and the design of solutions in highly interconnected dynamic systems. Some of the current problems that the world faces (such as COVID-19, climate change, poverty, etc.) are of such complexity that it is nearly impossible to build adequate insight without structured approaches like System Dynamics. The 2021 International System Dynamics Conference will include rigorous dialogue and exchange of ideas about resilience to global problems, how to design solutions to these problems, and how we might turn insight into action. |
| Internet address |