Early prediction of acute traumatic coagulopathy: a validation of the COAST score using the German Trauma Registry

Background: Early identification of trauma patients at risk of developing acute traumatic coagulopathy (ATC) is important for initiating appropriate, coagulopathy-focused treatment. A clinical ATC prediction tool is a quick, simple method to evaluate risk. The COAST score was developed and validated in Australia but is yet to be validated on a European population. We validated the ability of the COAST score to predict coagulopathy and adverse bleeding-related outcomes on a large European trauma population. Methods: The COAST score was modified and applied to a retrospective cohort of trauma patients from the German Trauma Registry (TR-DGU). The primary outcome was coagulopathy defined as INR > 1.5 or aPTT > 60 s. Secondary outcomes were massive transfusion, blood product requirements, urgent surgery and mortality. The cohort included adult trauma patients with Injury Severity Score > 15 treated in Germany/Austria in 2012–2016. Results: 15,370 cases were included, of which 10.9% were coagulopathic. The COAST score performed with sensitivity 21.6% and specificity 94.2% at a threshold of COAST ≥ 3. The AUROC was 0.625 (95% CI 0.61–0.64). The COAST score also identified patients who had more massive transfusions (15.3% v 1.6%), more emergency surgery (49.6% v 28.2%), and higher early (21.7% v 5.4%) and total in-hospital mortality (38.1% v 14.5%). Conclusion: This large retrospective study demonstrated that the modified COAST score predicts coagulopathy with low sensitivity but high specificity. A positive COAST score identified a group of patients with bleeding-related adverse outcomes. This score appears adequate to act as an inclusion criterion for clinical trials targeting ATC.