TY - JOUR
T1 - ECONOMIC GROWTH in China and ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT on Australia-China BILATERAL TRADE
T2 - A PROJECTION for 2025 BASED on the CGE ANALYSIS
AU - Sheng, Y. U.
AU - Drysdale, Peter
AU - Chen, Chunlai
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 World Scientific Publishing Company.
PY - 2019/9/1
Y1 - 2019/9/1
N2 - This paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Static Model to predict the potential impact of economic growth in China on bilateral trade between China and Australia in 2025, under three different scenarios representing the business as usual, the successful reform and the stagnation cases, respectively. The results show that exports from Australia to China will continue to increase in both absolute and relative terms, irrespective of which economic growth path China takes, partly due to the strong complementary relationship of production between the two countries. The results also indicate that education service exports will become a new engine of bilateral trade in addition to agricultural and mineral products. Furthermore, comparing the results obtained from the three scenarios shows how successful reform will bring more benefits to both China and Australia in trade, which provides useful insights for policy making to facilitate bilateral economic relationship.
AB - This paper uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Static Model to predict the potential impact of economic growth in China on bilateral trade between China and Australia in 2025, under three different scenarios representing the business as usual, the successful reform and the stagnation cases, respectively. The results show that exports from Australia to China will continue to increase in both absolute and relative terms, irrespective of which economic growth path China takes, partly due to the strong complementary relationship of production between the two countries. The results also indicate that education service exports will become a new engine of bilateral trade in addition to agricultural and mineral products. Furthermore, comparing the results obtained from the three scenarios shows how successful reform will bring more benefits to both China and Australia in trade, which provides useful insights for policy making to facilitate bilateral economic relationship.
KW - China economic growth
KW - China-Australia bilateral trade
KW - GTAP Static Model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85032706985&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1142/S0217590817450059
DO - 10.1142/S0217590817450059
M3 - Article
SN - 0217-5908
VL - 64
SP - 839
EP - 862
JO - Singapore Economic Review
JF - Singapore Economic Review
IS - 4
ER -