Economic Risk Factors and Predictive Modelling of Genocide and Mass Killing

In this chapter we assess the current utility and future promise of a number of economic variables for predicting genocides and other mass atrocities. We begin with a discussion of the differences between quantitative models designed for prediction and those designed for purposes such as correlation or hypothesis testing of causal arguments. We then conduct two surveys. The first covers the latter literature in regard to its use of important economic variables; the second focuses on the relatively small number of forecasting models. Finally, we suggest avenues to potentially improve the inclusion and use of economic variables in forecasting models directed at early warning efforts and, ultimately, atrocity prevention.