TY - JOUR
T1 - Emergency department visits and associated healthcare costs attributable to increasing temperature in the context of climate change in Perth, Western Australia, 2012-2019
AU - Tong, Michael Xiaoliang
AU - Wondmagegn, Berhanu Yazew
AU - Xiang, Jianjun
AU - Williams, Susan
AU - Hansen, Alana
AU - Dear, Keith
AU - Pisaniello, Dino
AU - Xiao, Jianguo
AU - Jian, Le
AU - Scalley, Ben
AU - Nitschke, Monika
AU - Nairn, John
AU - Bambrick, Hilary
AU - Karnon, Jonathan
AU - Bi, Peng
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
PY - 2021/6
Y1 - 2021/6
N2 - Increasing temperature and its impact on population health is an emerging significant public health issue in the context of climate change in Australia. While previous studies have primarily focused on risk assessment, very few studies have evaluated heat-attributable emergency department (ED) visits and associated healthcare costs, or projected future health and economic burdens. This study used a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate heat attributable ED visits and associated healthcare costs from 13 hospitals in Perth, Western Australia, and to project the future healthcare costs in 2030s and 2050s under three climate change scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. There were 3697 ED visits attributable to heat (temperatures above 20.5 C) over the study period 2012-2019, accounting for 4.6% of the total ED visits. This resulted in AU$ 2.9 million in heat-attributable healthcare costs. The number of ED visits projected to occur in the 2030s and 2050s ranges from 5707 to 9421 under different climate change scenarios, which would equate to AU$ 4.6-7.6 million in heat associated healthcare costs. The heat attributable fraction for ED visits and associated healthcare costs would increase from 4.6% and 4.1% in 2010s to 5.0%-6.3% and 4.4%-5.6% in 2030s and 2050s, respectively. Future heat attributable ED visits and associated costs will increase in Perth due to climate change. Excess heat will generate a substantial population health challenge and economic burdens on the healthcare system if there is insufficient heat adaptation. It is vital to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, develop heat-related health interventions and optimize healthcare resources to mitigate the negative impact on the healthcare system and population health in the face of climate change.
AB - Increasing temperature and its impact on population health is an emerging significant public health issue in the context of climate change in Australia. While previous studies have primarily focused on risk assessment, very few studies have evaluated heat-attributable emergency department (ED) visits and associated healthcare costs, or projected future health and economic burdens. This study used a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate heat attributable ED visits and associated healthcare costs from 13 hospitals in Perth, Western Australia, and to project the future healthcare costs in 2030s and 2050s under three climate change scenarios - Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. There were 3697 ED visits attributable to heat (temperatures above 20.5 C) over the study period 2012-2019, accounting for 4.6% of the total ED visits. This resulted in AU$ 2.9 million in heat-attributable healthcare costs. The number of ED visits projected to occur in the 2030s and 2050s ranges from 5707 to 9421 under different climate change scenarios, which would equate to AU$ 4.6-7.6 million in heat associated healthcare costs. The heat attributable fraction for ED visits and associated healthcare costs would increase from 4.6% and 4.1% in 2010s to 5.0%-6.3% and 4.4%-5.6% in 2030s and 2050s, respectively. Future heat attributable ED visits and associated costs will increase in Perth due to climate change. Excess heat will generate a substantial population health challenge and economic burdens on the healthcare system if there is insufficient heat adaptation. It is vital to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, develop heat-related health interventions and optimize healthcare resources to mitigate the negative impact on the healthcare system and population health in the face of climate change.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85108945275&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac04d5
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/ac04d5
M3 - Article
SN - 1748-9326
VL - 16
JO - Environmental Research Letters
JF - Environmental Research Letters
IS - 6
M1 - 065011
ER -