TY - JOUR
T1 - Establishing thresholds and parameters for pandemic influenza severity assessment, Australia
AU - Vette, Kaitlyn
AU - Bareja, Christina
AU - Clark, Robert
AU - Lal, Aparna
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2018, World Health Organization. All rights reserved.
PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - Objective To implement the World Health Organization’s pandemic influenza severity assessment tool in Australia, using multiple sources of data to establish thresholds and measure influenza severity indicators. Methods We used data from four reliable sources: sentinel general practitioner surveillance, hospital surveillance, a public health hotline and an influenza-like illness survey system. We measured three influenza severity indicators (transmissibility, impact and disease seriousness) defined using pandemic influenza severity assessment guidelines. We used the moving epidemic method and a seriousness indicator-specific method to set thresholds for indicator parameters using 2012–2016 data. We then applied the thresholds to data from the 2017 influenza season. Findings We were able to measure and produce thresholds for each severity indicator. At least one laboratory-confirmed influenza parameter was used to measure each indicator. When thresholds were applied to the 2017 season, there was good agreement across all data sources in measuring activity for each indicator. The season was characterized as having high transmissibility and extraordinary impact. Seriousness was characterized as moderate overall and in all age groups except those aged ≥ 65 years for whom it was high. This matched the description of the season produced by the Australian national influenza surveillance committee, based on expert opinion and historical ranges. Conclusion The pandemic influenza severity assessment and moving epidemic method provide a robust and flexible method to enable an evidence-based assessment of seasonal influenza severity across diverse data sources. This is useful for national assessment and will contribute to global monitoring and response to circulating influenza with pandemic potential.
AB - Objective To implement the World Health Organization’s pandemic influenza severity assessment tool in Australia, using multiple sources of data to establish thresholds and measure influenza severity indicators. Methods We used data from four reliable sources: sentinel general practitioner surveillance, hospital surveillance, a public health hotline and an influenza-like illness survey system. We measured three influenza severity indicators (transmissibility, impact and disease seriousness) defined using pandemic influenza severity assessment guidelines. We used the moving epidemic method and a seriousness indicator-specific method to set thresholds for indicator parameters using 2012–2016 data. We then applied the thresholds to data from the 2017 influenza season. Findings We were able to measure and produce thresholds for each severity indicator. At least one laboratory-confirmed influenza parameter was used to measure each indicator. When thresholds were applied to the 2017 season, there was good agreement across all data sources in measuring activity for each indicator. The season was characterized as having high transmissibility and extraordinary impact. Seriousness was characterized as moderate overall and in all age groups except those aged ≥ 65 years for whom it was high. This matched the description of the season produced by the Australian national influenza surveillance committee, based on expert opinion and historical ranges. Conclusion The pandemic influenza severity assessment and moving epidemic method provide a robust and flexible method to enable an evidence-based assessment of seasonal influenza severity across diverse data sources. This is useful for national assessment and will contribute to global monitoring and response to circulating influenza with pandemic potential.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85053714138&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.2471/BLT.18.211508
DO - 10.2471/BLT.18.211508
M3 - Article
SN - 0042-9686
VL - 96
SP - 558
EP - 567
JO - Bulletin of the World Health Organization
JF - Bulletin of the World Health Organization
IS - 8
ER -