Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran

Elham Pourazarm; Arusha Cooray

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.006

Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran

Elham Pourazarm, Arusha Cooray^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

45 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study examines the short- and the long-run relationship between electricity demand and its determinants in the Iranian residential sector. The study employs unit root tests, cointegration and error-correction models on annual time series for the period, 1967-2009. The results show that electricity price is insignificant and income elasticity is lower than unity. The most influential factor influencing household electricity demand is cooling degree days. The number of electrified villages (an indicator of economic progress) is statistically significant, showing that economic progress has a positive impact on electricity demand. Electricity demand is forecast until 2020. The results show that under the most probable projection, electricity consumption in the residential sector will grow at an annual rate of 29% and 80% by 2014 and 2020, respectively.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	546-558
Number of pages	13
Journal	Economic Modelling
Volume	35
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.006
Publication status	Published - Sept 2013

Access to Document

10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.006

Cite this

@article{bf75470f77d4437d846472a3f4b2feb8,

title = "Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran",

abstract = "This study examines the short- and the long-run relationship between electricity demand and its determinants in the Iranian residential sector. The study employs unit root tests, cointegration and error-correction models on annual time series for the period, 1967-2009. The results show that electricity price is insignificant and income elasticity is lower than unity. The most influential factor influencing household electricity demand is cooling degree days. The number of electrified villages (an indicator of economic progress) is statistically significant, showing that economic progress has a positive impact on electricity demand. Electricity demand is forecast until 2020. The results show that under the most probable projection, electricity consumption in the residential sector will grow at an annual rate of 29% and 80% by 2014 and 2020, respectively.",

keywords = "ARDL, Economic development, Electrified villages, Iran, Residential electricity demand, Short- and long-run price and income elasticities, Structural breaks",

author = "Elham Pourazarm and Arusha Cooray",

year = "2013",

month = sep,

doi = "10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.006",

language = "English",

volume = "35",

pages = "546--558",

journal = "Economic Modelling",

issn = "0264-9993",

publisher = "Elsevier B.V.",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran

AU - Pourazarm, Elham

AU - Cooray, Arusha

PY - 2013/9

Y1 - 2013/9

N2 - This study examines the short- and the long-run relationship between electricity demand and its determinants in the Iranian residential sector. The study employs unit root tests, cointegration and error-correction models on annual time series for the period, 1967-2009. The results show that electricity price is insignificant and income elasticity is lower than unity. The most influential factor influencing household electricity demand is cooling degree days. The number of electrified villages (an indicator of economic progress) is statistically significant, showing that economic progress has a positive impact on electricity demand. Electricity demand is forecast until 2020. The results show that under the most probable projection, electricity consumption in the residential sector will grow at an annual rate of 29% and 80% by 2014 and 2020, respectively.

AB - This study examines the short- and the long-run relationship between electricity demand and its determinants in the Iranian residential sector. The study employs unit root tests, cointegration and error-correction models on annual time series for the period, 1967-2009. The results show that electricity price is insignificant and income elasticity is lower than unity. The most influential factor influencing household electricity demand is cooling degree days. The number of electrified villages (an indicator of economic progress) is statistically significant, showing that economic progress has a positive impact on electricity demand. Electricity demand is forecast until 2020. The results show that under the most probable projection, electricity consumption in the residential sector will grow at an annual rate of 29% and 80% by 2014 and 2020, respectively.

KW - ARDL

KW - Economic development

KW - Electrified villages

KW - Iran

KW - Residential electricity demand

KW - Short- and long-run price and income elasticities

KW - Structural breaks

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84883411109&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.006

DO - 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.08.006

M3 - Article

SN - 0264-9993

VL - 35

SP - 546

EP - 558

JO - Economic Modelling

JF - Economic Modelling

ER -

Estimating and forecasting residential electricity demand in Iran

Abstract

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this