TY - JOUR
T1 - Evaluation of ocean forecast performance for Royal Australian Navy exercise areas in the Tasman Sea
AU - Woodham, Robert H.
AU - Alves, Oscar
AU - Brassington, Gary B.
AU - Robertson, Robin
AU - Kiss, Andrew
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2015 Institute of Marine Engineering, Science & Technology.
PY - 2015
Y1 - 2015
N2 - The variability of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) in eddy-resolving re-analyses and forecasts of the East Australian Current (EAC) separation and eddy-shedding region is investigated. The baseline skill attainable by a naïve forecasting method is established using root mean square errors and correlation coefficients. The forecasting system is assessed against this baseline and found to be skilful throughout the forecast period for SSH, and for four days (of six) for SST. A skilful forecast is much more likely than an unskilful one. However, a ‘failure mode’ of the model, associated with eddy merging, is identified.
AB - The variability of sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) in eddy-resolving re-analyses and forecasts of the East Australian Current (EAC) separation and eddy-shedding region is investigated. The baseline skill attainable by a naïve forecasting method is established using root mean square errors and correlation coefficients. The forecasting system is assessed against this baseline and found to be skilful throughout the forecast period for SSH, and for four days (of six) for SST. A skilful forecast is much more likely than an unskilful one. However, a ‘failure mode’ of the model, associated with eddy merging, is identified.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85044567392&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1080/1755876X.2015.1087187
DO - 10.1080/1755876X.2015.1087187
M3 - Article
SN - 1755-876X
VL - 8
SP - 147
EP - 161
JO - Journal of Operational Oceanography
JF - Journal of Operational Oceanography
IS - 2
ER -