TY - JOUR
T1 - Evolution of the polycrisis
T2 - Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability
AU - Søgaard Jørgensen, Peter
AU - Jansen, Raf E.V.
AU - Avila Ortega, Daniel I.
AU - Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
AU - Donges, Jonathan F.
AU - Österblom, Henrik
AU - Olsson, Per
AU - Nyström, Magnus
AU - Lade, Steven J.
AU - Hahn, Thomas
AU - Folke, Carl
AU - Peterson, Garry D.
AU - Crépin, Anne Sophie
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors.
PY - 2024/1
Y1 - 2024/1
N2 - The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.
AB - The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences. This article is part of the theme issue 'Evolution and sustainability: gathering the strands for an Anthropocene synthesis'.
KW - complex adaptive systems
KW - cultural evolution
KW - evolutionary traps
KW - participatory mapping
KW - social-ecological systems
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85176728902&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1098/rstb.2022.0261
DO - 10.1098/rstb.2022.0261
M3 - Article
SN - 0962-8436
VL - 379
SP - 1
EP - 17
JO - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
JF - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
IS - 1893
M1 - 20220261
ER -