TY - JOUR
T1 - Expecting less in hard times
T2 - How the state of the economy influences students’ educational expectations
AU - Arnup, Jessica L.
AU - Black, Nicole
AU - Johnston, David W.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s)
PY - 2024/12
Y1 - 2024/12
N2 - Students’ realistic aspirations about their educational attainment (expectations) are predictive of their efforts, actions, and future outcomes. Limited evidence suggests these expectations are affected by the macroeconomy; however, the direction is ambiguous. We combine seven waves of Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) data to examine this relationship in 38 OECD countries. Using within-country fixed-effect regressions, we find students have significantly lower educational expectations when GDP growth is low or negative. Assessing the heterogeneity of these relationships, we find that the expectations of students with below-average reading skills or who attend non-metropolitan schools are most strongly affected by the state of the economy. The results also suggest that when GDP growth is weak, students are significantly more likely to complete zero homework and arrive late to school, are less likely to participate in extracurricular academic programs, and expect lower labour market returns to completed education.
AB - Students’ realistic aspirations about their educational attainment (expectations) are predictive of their efforts, actions, and future outcomes. Limited evidence suggests these expectations are affected by the macroeconomy; however, the direction is ambiguous. We combine seven waves of Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) data to examine this relationship in 38 OECD countries. Using within-country fixed-effect regressions, we find students have significantly lower educational expectations when GDP growth is low or negative. Assessing the heterogeneity of these relationships, we find that the expectations of students with below-average reading skills or who attend non-metropolitan schools are most strongly affected by the state of the economy. The results also suggest that when GDP growth is weak, students are significantly more likely to complete zero homework and arrive late to school, are less likely to participate in extracurricular academic programs, and expect lower labour market returns to completed education.
KW - Educational behaviours
KW - Educational expectations
KW - Macroeconomic conditions
KW - Post-compulsory schooling decisions
KW - Returns to education
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85208556622&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.econedurev.2024.102606
DO - 10.1016/j.econedurev.2024.102606
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85208556622
SN - 0272-7757
VL - 103
JO - Economics of Education Review
JF - Economics of Education Review
M1 - 102606
ER -