Exploring Implications of Climate, Land Use, and Policy Intervention Scenarios on Water Resources, Livelihoods, and Resilience

Integrated modeling methodologies have a greater potential than purely disciplinary approaches to support comprehensive assessment of social, economic, and biophysical aspects of complex natural resource management such as the Indian governments' Integrated Watershed Management Program (IWMP). Climate and recharge estimates drive predictions assessment of the availability of surface and groundwater resources as impacted by IWMP, climate, and land use (i.e., water extractions). Water availability, land use mix, and crop productivity influence access to the available water resources, their usage, and, consequently, the decisions and resilience of households. This chapter draws together the science described in earlier chapters to allow scenario analysis of the likely impacts of selected climate, land use, IWMP, and other policy interventions on surface and groundwater resources, agricultural productivity, people's livelihoods, and resilience. A brief recap of the biophysical and socioeconomic models is also provided, and their linkage within an integrated model is outlined. Examples of biophysical scenarios and social policy scenarios are used to demonstrate the value of the integrated and disciplinary models for assessing IWMP and other impacts on water resources and resilience.