TY - JOUR
T1 - Forecasting Australian subnational age-specific mortality rates
AU - Shang, Han Lin
AU - Yang, Yang
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, Springer Nature B.V.
PY - 2021/3
Y1 - 2021/3
N2 - When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the forecasts at the national level. In this study, we apply a grouped multivariate functional time series to forecast Australian regional and remote age-specific mortality rates and reconcile forecasts in a group structure using various methods. Our proposed method compares favorably to a grouped univariate functional time series forecasting method by comparing one-step-ahead to five-step-ahead point forecast accuracy. Thus, we demonstrate that joint modeling of sub-populations with similar mortality patterns can improve point forecast accuracy.
AB - When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the forecasts at the national level. In this study, we apply a grouped multivariate functional time series to forecast Australian regional and remote age-specific mortality rates and reconcile forecasts in a group structure using various methods. Our proposed method compares favorably to a grouped univariate functional time series forecasting method by comparing one-step-ahead to five-step-ahead point forecast accuracy. Thus, we demonstrate that joint modeling of sub-populations with similar mortality patterns can improve point forecast accuracy.
KW - Australian regional mortality rates
KW - Forecast reconciliation
KW - Hierarchical/grouped time series
KW - Multivariate functional principal component analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85095689819&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s12546-020-09250-0
DO - 10.1007/s12546-020-09250-0
M3 - Article
SN - 1443-2447
VL - 38
JO - Journal of Population Research
JF - Journal of Population Research
IS - 1
ER -