Forecasting Australian subnational age-specific mortality rates

Han Lin Shang*, Yang Yang

*Corresponding author for this work

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    4 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    When modeling sub-national mortality rates, it is important to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to improve forecast accuracy. Moreover, forecasts at the sub-national level should aggregate consistently across the forecasts at the national level. In this study, we apply a grouped multivariate functional time series to forecast Australian regional and remote age-specific mortality rates and reconcile forecasts in a group structure using various methods. Our proposed method compares favorably to a grouped univariate functional time series forecasting method by comparing one-step-ahead to five-step-ahead point forecast accuracy. Thus, we demonstrate that joint modeling of sub-populations with similar mortality patterns can improve point forecast accuracy.

    Original languageEnglish
    JournalJournal of Population Research
    Volume38
    Issue number1
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Mar 2021

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