From Ballots to Cabinets: Analyzing the Continuity Between Pre- and Post-Electoral Coalitions in Multiparty Presidential Democracies

In this chapter, we examine the conditions under which the similarity in composition between post-electoral and pre-electoral coalitions prevails in presidential democracies with multiparty systems. We identify three key factors influencing the continuity between these coalitions: the legally mandated duration of the transition period, the legislative seat shares of pre-electoral coalition parties, and the ideological divergence within pre-electoral coalitions. Drawing on data from ten Latin American countries, our findings reveal that the longer the official transition period between election day and the inauguration of the government, the lower the continuity. Conversely, higher continuity results when pre-electoral coalition partners secure a larger share of seats after the elections and exhibit greater ideological alignment. These insights highlight the significance of pre-electoral alliances in shaping coalition government formation in presidential systems. We conclude with suggestions for future research to further explore these dynamics across different institutional settings and political contexts.