Future fertility in low fertility countries

Stuart Basten; TomÃ¡Å¡ Sobotka; KryÅ¡tof Zeman; Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi; Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi; Alicia Adsera; Jan Van Bavel; Caroline Berghammer; Minja Kim Choe; Tomas Frejka; Henri Leridon; Melinda Mills; S. Philip Morgan; Ronald Rindfuss; Louis Rosero-Bixby; Anna Rotkirch; Warren C. Sanderson; Maria Rita Testa; Olivier ThÃ©venon; Zhongwei Zhao

doi:10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703167.003.0003

Future fertility in low fertility countries

Stuart Basten, TomÃ¡Å¡ Sobotka, KryÅ¡tof Zeman, Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, Alicia Adsera, Jan Van Bavel, Caroline Berghammer, Minja Kim Choe, Tomas Frejka, Henri Leridon, Melinda Mills, S. Philip Morgan, Ronald Rindfuss, Louis Rosero-Bixby, Anna Rotkirch, Warren C. Sanderson, Maria Rita Testa, Olivier ThÃ©venon, Zhongwei Zhao

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › peer-review

Abstract

This chapter concerns countries with currently low fertility. It presents and justifies assumptions for future fertility trajectories based on an overview of recent fertility changes in major low-fertility regions, a discussion of theoretical arguments, a review of factors contributing to fertility change and variation during the late phases of demographic transition, a global survey of experts, and an invited meeting of experts. The survey contains 184 expert assessments with forecasts of period total fertility rates in 2030 and 2050, and substantive assessments of the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 possible fertility-influencing factors. Invited experts participating in a meeting in Vienna in December 2011 helped transform these survey results into the scenarios that informed the projections reported in this book.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century
Editors	Wolfgang Lutz, William P. Butz and Samir KC
Place of Publication	Oxford
Publisher	Oxford University Press
Pages	39-146
Volume	1
Edition	First
ISBN (Print)	9780198703167
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703167.003.0003
Publication status	Published - 2014

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Basten, S., Sobotka, TÅ., Zeman, K., Abbasi-Shavazi, J., Abbasi-Shavazi, J., Adsera, A., Van Bavel, J., Berghammer, C., Choe, M. K., Frejka, T., Leridon, H., Mills, M., Morgan, S. P., Rindfuss, R., Rosero-Bixby, L., Rotkirch, A., Sanderson, W. C., Testa, M. R., ThÃ©venon, O., & Zhao, Z. (2014). Future fertility in low fertility countries. In W. L. W. P. B. A. S. KC. (Ed.), World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century (First ed., Vol. 1, pp. 39-146). Oxford University Press . https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703167.003.0003

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abstract = "This chapter concerns countries with currently low fertility. It presents and justifies assumptions for future fertility trajectories based on an overview of recent fertility changes in major low-fertility regions, a discussion of theoretical arguments, a review of factors contributing to fertility change and variation during the late phases of demographic transition, a global survey of experts, and an invited meeting of experts. The survey contains 184 expert assessments with forecasts of period total fertility rates in 2030 and 2050, and substantive assessments of the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 possible fertility-influencing factors. Invited experts participating in a meeting in Vienna in December 2011 helped transform these survey results into the scenarios that informed the projections reported in this book.",

author = "Stuart Basten and Tom{\~A}¡{\AA}¡ Sobotka and Kry{\AA}¡tof Zeman and Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi and Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi and Alicia Adsera and {Van Bavel}, Jan and Caroline Berghammer and Choe, {Minja Kim} and Tomas Frejka and Henri Leridon and Melinda Mills and Morgan, {S. Philip} and Ronald Rindfuss and Louis Rosero-Bixby and Anna Rotkirch and Sanderson, {Warren C.} and Testa, {Maria Rita} and Olivier Th{\~A}{\textcopyright}venon and Zhongwei Zhao",

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Basten, S, Sobotka, TÅ, Zeman, K, Abbasi-Shavazi, J, Abbasi-Shavazi, J, Adsera, A, Van Bavel, J, Berghammer, C, Choe, MK, Frejka, T, Leridon, H, Mills, M, Morgan, SP, Rindfuss, R, Rosero-Bixby, L, Rotkirch, A, Sanderson, WC, Testa, MR, ThÃ©venon, O & Zhao, Z 2014, Future fertility in low fertility countries. in WLWPBASKC (ed.), World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century. First edn, vol. 1, Oxford University Press , Oxford, pp. 39-146. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703167.003.0003

Future fertility in low fertility countries. / Basten, Stuart; Sobotka, TomÃ¡Å¡; Zeman, KryÅ¡tof et al.
World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century. ed. / Wolfgang Lutz, William P. Butz and Samir KC. Vol. 1 First. ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press , 2014. p. 39-146.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter › peer-review

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AU - Basten, Stuart

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AU - Van Bavel, Jan

AU - Berghammer, Caroline

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AU - Morgan, S. Philip

AU - Rindfuss, Ronald

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AU - Sanderson, Warren C.

AU - Testa, Maria Rita

AU - Zhao, Zhongwei

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Future fertility in low fertility countries

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